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| If The Fed Didn"t Hike, Why Did Mortgage Rates Hit Long Term Highs? | ||
| 9/22/2023 4:48 PM | ||
| Mortgage rates actually recovered a bit on Friday as the underlying bond market experienced a modest correction after spiking to the weakest levels in more than a decade over the past 2 days. Despite the improvement, mortgages are also still near multi-decade highs. Why is this the case when the Fed didn"t hike rates this week? This co...Read More | ||
| Waiting For October | ||
| 9/22/2023 2:59 PM | ||
| Waiting For October It seems like September only just arrived, but our sights are already set on October as the scene of the next major battle in the bond market. Today"s trading session offered nothing of value, although it was "nice" to see a token correction in bonds after hitting multi-year highs ...Read More | ||
| Token Correction | ||
| 9/22/2023 11:17 AM | ||
| In a rather classic pattern, a hawkish read on the Fed gave way to international selling on Thursday. From there, a token correction was slightly more likely in the absence of any big ticket economic data, and that"s what we"re seeing so far today. In the AM hours, it"s been modest, to say the least. Current 10yr trading levels ar...Read More | ||
| Marketing, CRM, Fair Lending, HELOC, Non-QM Products; Webinars and Training Next Week; Why do People Move? | ||
| 9/22/2023 8:59 AM | ||
| Sometimes I send this Commentary out from some pretty nice places, sometimes not. Today comes from the tarmac at the Newark Airport, in Row 22, sitting next to some hairy guy who’s snoring and apparently went with the “Garlic Lover’s Pizza” last night. You can decide which category today fits in. “What do you call a small pepper in the autumn? A li...Read More | ||
| Mortgage Rates Jump up to 23-Year Highs | ||
| 9/21/2023 3:09 PM | ||
| Rates moved only moderately higher on Wednesday after the Fed rocked the bond market with its updated rate forecasts. To reiterate yesterday"s analysis, it"s not that the market is expecting the Fed to be accurate in those forecasts. Rather, the forecasts help investors understand how the Fed"s approach will be calibrated going forward....Read More | ||
| New Yield Highs After Post-Fed Follow-Through and Econ Data | ||
| 9/21/2023 3:07 PM | ||
| New Yield Highs After Post-Fed Follow-Through and Econ Data Any time the market goes to sleep on a Fed day in the midst of a big move, there"s a stronger than average possibility that overseas markets will add some momentum in the prevailing direction. That direction is "UP!" as far as rates and yield...Read More | ||
| Another Big September Fed Breakout | ||
| 9/21/2023 11:27 AM | ||
| Wednesday was a confirmation of a hawkish Fed that won"t care about the economy until it sees actual damage, and even then, only if that damage coincides with the expected drop in inflation. More important than Powell"s message during the press conference was the takeaway from the Fed"s dot plot. The market was positioned for ...Read More | ||
| DPA, CRM, QC, Asset Management Products; Deep Look at Housing and Rates: Not for the Faint-Hearted | ||
| 9/21/2023 9:10 AM | ||
| Who can think of September 21st without thinking about Earth, Wind, and Fire? Yesterday I was on a United Airlines flight out of San Francisco to Savannah, in Row 14. There was no row 13… but I knew what row I was really in! Speaking of numbers, obvious or otherwise, this article caught my eye: The Average American Spends This Much on a Mortgage.” ...Read More | ||
| Mortgage Rates Rise After Fed"s Updated Rate Forecast | ||
| 9/20/2023 3:50 PM | ||
| The Fed did not hike its policy rate today, but it did release updated forecasts that showed the average Fed member expects rates to be half a percent higher at the end of 2024 and 2025 compared to their forecasts released in June. The market was expecting a higher average forecast, but not that high. The result was broad bond market weaknes...Read More | ||
| Higher For Longer | ||
| 9/20/2023 3:43 PM | ||
| Higher For Longer Today"s Fed announcement was largely as expected: no rate hike, "data dependent," and "higher for longer" communicated via the dots. The direction of the change in the dot plot is no surprise, but the magnitude was. The median Fed member moved their forecast up by 0.50% through...Read More | ||
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