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Why Bonds Tanked Despite Super Low NFP | ||
11/1/2024 4:07 PM | ||
Why Bonds Tanked Despite Super Low NFP Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) came in at 12k versus a median forecast of 113k, and a previous reading of 254k. If those were the only facts you knew, on almost any other jobs report day in the history of jobs report days, you"d be well advised to bet heavily on a bond r...Read More | ||
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Rates Refuse to Drop Ahead of Election. How About After? | ||
11/1/2024 3:50 PM | ||
It is our longstanding policy to strictly avoid politics except in cases where the political realm legitimately intersects with relevant events for rates. Now is clearly one of those times. The discussion that follows contains no opinion or partisan leaning. Before getting started, let"s catch up with mortgage rates. Things haven"t been grea...Read More | ||
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Automated Servicing, Verification, Pricing Engine Tools; Investor Portal Changes; Shared Appreciation Mortgages | ||
11/1/2024 10:21 AM | ||
Not only do most states “gain an hour” Sunday, but I have good news for all my readers. I am getting stronger with age. I can now lift $100 worth of groceries with one hand! Speaking of which, time flies and Thanksgiving will be here before you know it and with it, pumpkin pie. (Yes, I know that this is a mortgage commentary, but even pumpkins have...Read More | ||
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Yes, NFP Really Dropped to 12k, But Don"t Expect a Huge Rally | ||
11/1/2024 9:06 AM | ||
When the median forecast for today"s jobs report began circulating, many a market watcher felt that the 113k forecast was too low compared to the 254k previous reading, even after considering the potential disruptions from hurricanes and strikes. Fast forward to today and the 12k (yes that"s TWELVE Thousand) number is surprising even those wh...Read More | ||
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Will Jobs Report Finally Get Bond Market"s Attention? | ||
10/31/2024 3:53 PM | ||
Will Jobs Data Finally Get Bond Market"s Attention? It"s been a weird week so far with a crazy combination of significant intraday volatility and an absence of any major movement in the bigger picture. Case in point, closing levels in 10yr yields have been 4.27, 4.27, 4.28, and 4.28 (at the 3pm CME) c...Read More | ||
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Mortgage Rates at 4 Month Highs. More Volatility Ahead | ||
10/31/2024 2:35 PM | ||
Mortgage rates rates moved moderately higher today, and while that leaves the average 30yr fixed rate only slightly higher than it was on Tuesday morning (7.09 vs 7.08), it"s also the highest rate in almost exactly 4 months. In a break from recent norms, the bond market didn"t take cues from data or election positioning. Instead, it was a ma...Read More | ||
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Once Again, Bonds Hangin" Tough Without Much Focus on Data | ||
10/31/2024 11:16 AM | ||
If it weren"t for the surge of volume in Treasuries lining up perfectly with economic report release times, one might wonder if traders even care that much about economic data right now. That would be quite the anomaly considering NFP week is traditionally the most reliable time to see data impact bonds. The counterpoint is that today"s...Read More | ||
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Hedging, HMDA Compliance, Non-QM Search, QC Tools; Government Program News and Updates | ||
10/31/2024 10:45 AM | ||
I recently went to my favorite local Mexican restaurant, and there was a sign in the window, “Sorry, we are closed due to short staff.” Someone had written below it, “Higher taller staff because I want a taco.” Economics and interest rates were certainly discussed in Denver this week at the MBA’s annual convention, as were the ramifications of the ...Read More | ||
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Decent Showing in Light of Stronger Data | ||
10/30/2024 3:35 PM | ||
Decent Showing in Light of Stronger Data Bonds lost ground today, but not as much as one might expect given the 233k vs 115k result in the ADP Employment data. Granted, ADP is a notoriously imperfect predictor of the NFP number that follows 2 days later, but that never stops markets from reacting on o...Read More | ||
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Economic Data Keeping Pressure on Mortgage Rates | ||
10/30/2024 2:57 PM | ||
The jobs report that came out at the beginning of October was a big wake up call for interest rates. Up until then, the prevailing belief was that the labor market was progressively softening and perhaps at risk of softening too quickly. The Federal Reserve had singled out the jobs market as an indicator that would dictate the pace of t...Read More | ||
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